With all due respect and apologies to Terry Bradshaw, Ben Roethlisberger is the best quarterback to have played in Black & Gold. Statistically, he’s in a league of his own.
That’s the type of statement that riles up the old and the young amongst Steeler Nation. That’s because comparing the two eras is difficult, if not impossible. So, it’s safe to say arguing either way ultimately boils down to hyperbole, with dogmatic adherents on both sides.
The absolute in the argument is that Roethlisberger owns most of the top statistical seasons in Steelers history. And there is little reason to think it won’t continue in 2017, especially with receiver Martavis Bryant, an exceedingly potent downfield threat, back in the fold.
But the question is, how good will it be? It’s not possible to know the answer with any certainty because there are too many variables, but there’s nothing wrong with trying to predict a few key numbers based on past performances.
In the first part of this series, we looked at how we can apply linear regression to make these predictions.
To paraphrase Apollo 13 pilot Jack Swigert: Houston, we have a problem.
The problem: Roethlisberger had a statistically down year in 2016, following up his career-best year.
Solution: we “weight” 2016’s numbers to bring it more in line with 2014 and 2015. Of course, that’s a slippery slope, because we basically have to make up the method. Again, there are simply too many variables to apply any sort of scientific method without crunching far more numbers that I care to for a simple prediction. Instead, we’ll take a few basic ideas to add…
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